It’s a potentially massive week in the Premier League, with a midweek matchday to be followed by another round of fixtures at the weekend. While such a congested schedule could be impactful anywhere in the table, it’s at the bottom where the clamour for points is arguably at its most desperate.
The weekend’s action brought the bottom five a little closer together for the second matchday in a row, as both of the bottom two picked up at least a point again, while Everton – sat fifth from bottom – suffered a third successive defeat.
It’s also worth noting that this was the first matchday since Nottingham Forest were hit with a four-point deduction for breaches of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR).
Sheffield United still prop up the table but will be feeling a bitter sense of what might’ve been after they surrendered a 3-1 lead in what was eventually a 3-3 draw at home to Fulham on Saturday, with Marco Silva’s side scoring twice from the 86th minute onwards.
So, while their chances of avoiding the drop have remained at 98.4% according to the Opta supercomputer, it’s fair to say their outlook would’ve looked a little less bleak had they held on against Fulham; after all, no one is expecting them to get anything from Thursday’s trip to Anfield.
The Blades weren’t the only team in the struggling pack to suffer late disappointment on Saturday. Luton Town were on course for a commendable 1-1 draw at Tottenham, but Son Heung-min’s 86th-minute winner for the hosts was a bitter blow and saw the Hatters drop into the bottom three.
Last week, Luton’s relegation probability was rated at 62.1%; that’s now up to 65.5% as a result of the weekend’s results.
Forest were the main team to gain from Luton’s late disappointment. Their points deduction really increased the heat on Nuno Espírito Santo’s side but a 1-1 draw at home to Crystal Palace on Saturday was enough to move them back above Luton on goal difference.
Nevertheless, it wasn’t enough to reduce their relegation chances in the eyes of the supercomputer, as they went from 37.5% to 39.3%. However, they’ll sense the midweek fixtures present an opportunity to break clear as they host Fulham on Tuesday while Luton go to title-challenging Arsenal a day later.
Burnley are still rated as the next most likely to go down after Sheffield United, though their fans may still be harbouring real hope of a great escape. Few would’ve expected them to get a result at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, yet they left with a 2-2 draw despite playing more than half the match a man down.
That contributed to their relegation probability decreasing by 3.8 percentage points to 91.0%, and with an inconsistent Wolves side visiting Turf Moor on Tuesday, another positive result is hardly beyond the realm of possibility
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